PNJ hit the price I said I would buy at. I still haven't bought.
At the end of July I wrote down a number: I would be willing to buy PNJ at 16,000–20,000 dong.
This morning PNJ is trading around 20,250.
The price has arrived where I was waiting. But what I intended to buy is no longer the same thing.
On 31 July, with PNJ around 33,000, I wrote that the price offered no margin of safety. I named the range I would buy in: 16,000–20,000.
Two months later the price got there. On 6 October PNJ closed at 20,150, its lowest in about ten years.
The question I asked myself this morning: "The price reached the range you named. Are you buying?"
No. This piece explains why. Not because I changed my mind, but because I kept the same arithmetic, and the arithmetic now produces a different number.
The figures here come from company disclosures as reported in the press, as of the morning of 7 October 2026. This is how I see it, not advice to buy or sell.
Where the 16,000–20,000 range came from
I did not pick that number because it was round.
In July I estimated PNJ in normal conditions earns about 2,100 billion dong of real profit a year. I was willing to pay about eight times that stream, so the business was worth roughly 16,800 billion. Across 511.7 million shares, about 32,800 dong a share.
For a business with this much still unclear, I only buy at 40–50% below value. From 32,800, that discount gives 16,000–20,000.
The final number depends on three things: profit, the multiple, and the share count. I treated the third as fixed. It is no longer fixed.
Two things changed since July
First, the loss from the buy-back promise now has a number. On 25 September, PNJ proposed a provision of 7,071 billion dong for repurchasing diamonds it had sold. About 1,446 billion of that is already a realised loss. The remaining 5,600 billion is expected to arise over time.
In July I knew the item existed, but nobody knew its size. Now there is a number to subtract.
Second, the share count could more than double. On 29 September PNJ sought approval for a private placement of up to 550 million shares, more than the entire 511.7 million currently outstanding. The company needs roughly 8,000 billion dong.
This is where many people misread the situation. A share price is the price of one slice of a company. When the number of slices doubles, each slice is smaller, even if the cake grows a little on the new money.
Recalculating with the same method
I keep the same three profit scenarios and the same multiple from July. I only add the two things above:
Value per share = (business value − remaining buy-back loss + new money raised) ÷ shares after issuance
The new share count depends on the issue price. The lower the price, the more shares are needed to raise 8,000 billion.
| Scenario (from July) | No issuance | 550m shares at 14,545 | At 20,000 | At 26,300 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | 8,100 | 11,500 | 13,300 | 14,900 |
| Base | 21,800 | 18,100 | 21,000 | 23,500 |
| Optimistic | 39,700 | 26,700 | 31,100 | 34,700 |
Look at the middle row. In the base case, with the full 550 million shares issued, each share is worth about 18,100 dong.
Which means PNJ's value now sits inside the range where I once intended to buy.
Buying at 20,000 today is paying nearly full value. The 40–50% margin of safety I set is gone. It did not disappear because the price rose. It disappeared because value fell faster than price.
Holding to the same discipline, the new buying range would be around 9,000–11,000 if the full issuance happens, or 11,000–13,000 if no issuance is needed.
I also tested the other side. If the 7,071 billion provision is too conservative and the remaining loss is only around 3,000 billion, the base case rises to roughly 20,500–27,000. That is possible. But across July and August the gross margin fell from 18.5% to 10%. This year, even excluding the provision, the company only expects about 800 billion of profit. The 2,100 billion in the base case still has nothing confirming it.
A block of shares waiting up ahead
There is a detail in the proposal I read several times.
The issue price may not be below either of two levels: the 30-session average price, and the most recent book value. Book value is currently about 26,300 a share, above the market price.
Nobody pays 26,000 for new shares when the market offers 20,000. So I think an issuance this year is close to impossible.
Once the 2026 audit is out, around March next year, book value will drop to roughly 12,600 because of the loss. Only then can shares be issued, and at a low price.
Which means anyone buying today knows in advance that a large block of new shares is coming in a few months, possibly at a lower price. A rational buyer waits. So the price can stay pinned down for a long while, even after falling this far.
Between 2 and 6 October, foreign investors sold a net 1,400 billion dong of PNJ. The 2 October session alone was 54.5 million shares, about 10.7% of the company. Foreign ownership went from roughly 45.6% to about 35%. On 6 October there were still 14.7 million shares queued at the floor price.
What would make me recalculate
One scenario changes the arithmetic entirely: the 21 October shareholder meeting switching to a rights issue to existing shareholders, rather than a private placement to outsiders.
In that case, anyone holding shares has the right to buy more. Anyone who contributes is not diluted. Buying part now and the rest at the issue price becomes a different problem, and possibly a sensible one.
Beyond that I am watching three things:
- Whether the chairwoman's family contributes capital alongside shareholders in the raise.
- The Q3 report: how much stock is still coming back for buy-back, and whether retail margins recover.
- The investigation's conclusion regarding the certification subsidiary.
Update, afternoon of 7 October: the price is at 18,900
A few hours after I wrote this, PNJ fell another 6% to around 18,900, close to the session floor of 18,750. The price is now below my old 16,000–20,000 range. This is a roughly nine-year low, about 78% below the high set early this year. Market capitalisation is around 9,700 billion dong.
The company has made no new disclosure since 2 October. Foreign ownership has gone from 47% on 21 September to about 35%. Today's fall is not from new news; it is the old selling wave that has not stopped.
Setting 18,900 against the base case above:
| Base case | Value per share | 18,900 against value |
|---|---|---|
| Full 550m share issuance | 18,100 | about 5% expensive |
| 400m shares at 20,000 | 21,000 | about 10% cheap |
| No issuance needed | 21,800 | about 13% cheap |
The price is between 0 and 13% below value. My discipline is 40–50%. The gap has narrowed but is not enough. The conclusion stands: I still have not bought, and I am still waiting for the 21 October meeting.
The QuietVC lesson
A buying range is a calculation, not a promise to yourself. When the inputs change, the range must change. Keeping the old number because you already published it is serving your ego, not your discipline.
The share count is a variable too. We tend to focus on profit and the multiple and treat the share count as a constant. For a business that needs money, it is the number most likely to change.
A price reaching your buying range is the moment to recalculate, not the moment to press the button. Prices do not usually drift into your range by themselves. They fall because something happened. The first question is whether that something changed the value.
In July I was waiting for 20,000. Now I am waiting for 21 October.
The margin of safety is not a price level. It is the distance between price and value, and value can fall too.
Silent discipline. Compound value.